Congressional races round 2: North Carolina, North Dakota

Continuing through the alphabet

North Carolina has 13 representatives: 6 Republicans and 7 Democrats

The filing deadline was Feb 29, primary is May 6

North Dakota has 1 representative: A Democrat

Filing deadline is April 11, primary is June 10

District: NC-01

Location Northeast NC, bordering VA and Pimlico Sound

Representative George Butterfield (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 42-57

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents  None

Demographics 39th most rural (52.3$), 15th lowest income (median = $28K), 74th fewest Whites (44.4%), 24th most Blacks (50.5%)

Assessment  Unopposed

District: NC-02

Location Central NC, including Raleigh

Representative Bob Etheridge (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 62-38

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents In 2004, Billy Creech raised $130K to Etheridge’s $1 million. In 2006, Dan Mansell raised little

Current opponents None

Demographics 43rd most rural (50.5%)

Assessment Unopposed

District: NC-03

Location Most of the Atlantic coast of NC

Representative Walter Jones (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 68-32

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents   Marshall Adame

Demographics 42nd most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-04

Location The ‘research triangle’ including Chapel Hill, Durham, and Cary

Representative David Price (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Augustus Cho

Demographics 67th highest income (median = $54K)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-05

Location Northwest NC, bordering TN and VA

Representative Virginia Foxx (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 59-41

Bush margin 2004 66-33

Notes on opponents In 2004, Jim Harrell raised $400K to Foxx’s $1.2 million.  In 2006, Roger Sharpe raised $100K

Current opponents Roy Carter

Demographics 22nd most rural (57.1%), 42nd most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-06

Location Central NC

Representative Howard Coble (R)

First elected  1984

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 73-27

Bush margin 2004 69-30

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Teresa Sue Bratton

Jay Ovittore and

Johnny Carter

Demographics 56th most rural (48.4%), 25th most Republican

Assessment This is a solidly Republican seat, but Coble is getting old (born 1931) and hasn’t had a serious fight in a while…

District: NC-07

Location Southern NC, bordering SC and the Atlantic

Representative Mike McIntyre (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 73-27

Bush margin 2004 56-44

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Will Breazeale

Demographics 30th most rural (54.9%), 70th most Blacks (23.1%)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-08

Location Central part of southern NC, bordering SC,

Representative Robin Hayes (R)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 329 votes out of 121,000

2004 margin 56-44

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Larry Kissell raised $800K to Hayes’ $2.5 million; in 2004, Beth Troutman raised $200K to Hayes’ $1.6 million

Current opponents Larry Kissell

Demographics 58th most Blacks (26.6%)

Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks this the 20th most vulnerable Republican seat, and it is on the DCCC list

District: NC-09

Location A strange shaped district in southern NC, bordering SC

Representative Susan Myrick (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 70-30

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Ross Overby

Harry Taylor , possibly Bill Glass

Demographics 73rd highest income (median = $55K) (3rd highest in the deep south, after GA-06 and GA-07)

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-10

Location Western NC, but east of NC-11, running from TN to SC

Representative Patrick McHenry (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Steve Ivester

Demographics 46th most rural (50.1%), 42nd most Republican

Assessment  Long shot

District: NC-11

Location Westernmost NC, bordering TN, GA, and SC

Representative Heath Shuler (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 54-46

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents In 2006, Shuler ousted Charles Taylor, raising $ 1.8 million to Taylor’s $4.4 million

Current opponents John Armor, Carl Mumpower

Demographics 25th most rural (56.1%), 90th lowest income (median = $35K)

Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it 14th most vulnerable Democratic seat.

District: NC-12

Location A really weird, snaky district, SC’s “Black” district.  Includes Charlotte and Winston Salem.  It was the subject of 4 Supreme Court cases. Still, it borders the NC5,6,8,9, and 10th

Representative Mel Watt (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 37-63

Notes on opponents Ada Fisher ran in 2004 and 2006, in 2004 he raised $100K, in 2006, $400K.  Watt raised about $500K each time

Current opponents Ada Fisher again

Demographics 28th most Blacks (44.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-13

Location Central part of northern NC, bordering VA

Representative Brad Miller (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 59-41

Bush margin 2004 47-52

Notes on opponents In 2006, Vernon Robinson raised $2.2 million to Miller’s $1.8 million.  In 2004, Virginia Johnson raised $350K to Johnson’s $1.2 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  safe

District: ND-AL

Location The whole state

Representative Earl Pomeroy (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 63-34

Notes on opponents In 2004, Duane Sand raised $1 million to Pomeroy’s $1.8 million; the 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 73rd most rural (44.2%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)

Assessment Safe